Friday, May 18, 2012

Breaking News: French Nuclear Power Plant Bombed!

It didn't take much to bomb the Bugey nuclear power plant in France...

Just a motorized paraglider and an anti-nuclear activist with a serious set of stones.

It all went down a couple of weeks ago, when an unnamed activist flew over the 3 GW power station, threw a smoke bomb, and landed safely inside the facility.

He said he wanted to illustrate the external dangers of nuclear power. He accomplished much more.

You see, the timing couldn't have been better for the anti-nuclear crowd in France. Because just four days after security flaws were exposed at the Bugey nuclear power station, Francois Hollande of France's socialist party won the French presidential election.

My friends, Hollande may end up doing more damage to France's nuclear industry than an actual meltdown...

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Au Revoir, Nuclear?

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out.

France, a country that's more than 75% powered by nuclear, just elected a new president who has clearly stated his intentions of reducing the nation's dependence on nuclear to 50%.

And while there are opponents to his agenda, they are a vocal minority in a country that happily elected this anti-nuclear socialist to initiate some major energy policy changes.

Now, whether or not you agree with this guy's agenda or his politics doesn't change the fact that France's nuclear industry is under attack.

Hollande's nuclear reduction plan calls for a transition to be completed in about 13 years. In terms of energy transitions, this is a very aggressive goal.

Is it possible? Absolutely.

Is it going to happen? I'm doubtful.

Despite the fact that the French seem to be showing signs of interest in moving away from nuclear and towards renewables, the French economy is directly tied to its nuclear power dominance — particularly today, when the Germans, the Swiss, and the Italians are giving nuclear the cold shoulder.

It should also be noted that France is the world's largest exporter of electricity, an accomplishment that can be traced to its 63 gigawatts of nuclear power.

All this being said, the last place I'd pony up a few bucks for nuclear in the near term is France...


Make a Dent, Make Some Money

I'm not saying nuclear is dead in France. Strictly from an economic stance, the country simply cannot survive without its robust supply of nuclear power.

However, over the next few years, this new government is going to go full force on its attempt to integrate more solar and wind into its energy mix.

In fact, over the course of the next five years, I expect to see France at least double its solar and wind capacity.

From an energy transition standpoint, it's not quite as big of a deal as you might think.

Today France's installed wind power capacity is around 6.8 gigawatts; its installed solar capacity is at around 2.5 gigawatts.

Combined, this contributes about 3.8% of the electricity consumed by the nation.

If solar and wind capacity do double within five years, this will still contribute less than 8% of the nation's electricity needs — barely making a noticeable dent in nuclear's dominance.

But from an investment standpoint, a doubling of installed capacity inside of five years is actually pretty enticing.


 

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